The conflict with Ukraine: key indicators, responsibility, reasons for concern, the threat of a clash with NATO and the use of nuclear weapons

About half of the respondents continue to follow the Ukrainian events quite closely. Support for the actions of the Russian armed forces also remains at a high level. For the first time in six months, the number of supporters of negotiations has increased significantly (up to 58%). Most of the respondents believe that Russia is more interested in negotiations. Two thirds of respondents still hold the United States and NATO responsible for what is happening, and their conviction has grown over the year. Half of the respondents allows the conflict to escalate into a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Russia’s military actions in Ukraine mainly cause Russians to be proud of Russia (48%) or alarm, fear and horror (33%), these feelings have prevailed among respondents since the beginning of the conflict. The majority of respondents are concerned about the shelling of Russian territories by Ukraine, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons and the supply of Western military equipment. One in three admits that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons during the conflict may be justified.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for May 2024

Mass assessments of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are stable. More than half of the respondents are monitoring the situation quite closely. Most support the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Half of the respondents believe that it is necessary to move on to peace negotiations (43% are in favor of continuing military operations, their share has been growing in recent months). However, the majority is not ready to make concessions regarding Ukraine and this share is growing. Russians consider the exchange of prisoners of war and a ceasefire to be acceptable conditions for signing a peace agreement, while the return of new regions and Ukraine’s accession to NATO are completely unacceptable. If there was an opportunity to go back in time and cancel or support the start of Special Military Operation, slightly more than a third of the respondents would reverse this decision (their share has decreased slightly in recent months).

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for April 2024

Half of Russians continue to monitor the situation around Ukraine more or less closely. The level of support for the Russian Armed Forces remains high, they are supported by three quarters of Russians. After a short decline at the beginning of the year, the share of Russians who advocate peace talks began to recover — now it is almost 50 %. At the same time, if the resident had decided to stop military operations already “this week”, the majority (71%) would have supported his decision. However, this share is reduced to 30% if the return of new territories became a condition for the end of the conflict. Russians are not always able to adequately assess how widespread their own views on the “special operation” are in society.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assesments for March 2024

In March, attention to events in Ukraine increased. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains consistently high. The number of supporters of peace talks has been declining since the end of last year, while the number of supporters of continued hostilities remains virtually unchanged. Supporters of the peace talks explain their position by saying that “there are many victims,” “people are dying,” and “war fatigue has accumulated.” Those who advocate the continuation of hostilities explain their opinion by saying that “it is necessary to go to the end,” “finish what has been started,” “destroy fascism,” “negotiations will lead to nothing.” About half of the respondents do not rule out a second wave of partial mobilization, but their number has decreased over the past year. The majority of respondents support the annexation of Crimea and believe that it has brought Russia more benefits — their number has grown over the past few years.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assesments for February 2024

The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains consistently high. There are still slightly more than half of the respondents who support peace talks, but their number has decreased slightly over the past three months. Russians consider the main objectives of the “special operation” to be the protection of residents of Donbass and ensuring the security of the country. Over the past six months, the number of people who are confident that the “special operation” is going well has been growing; today 70% of respondents believe so. Against this background, the majority does not expect a new wave of mobilisation; the prevailing view is that there is no need for it. The level of concerns about mobilisation has almost halved compared to September last year — only a third of respondents is concerned.

Conflict with Ukraine: estimates of the end of 2023 – beginning of 2024

About half of the respondents follow the Ukrainian events. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high. At the same time, half of the respondents support the idea of peace talks, this figure has slightly decreased compared to November last year. The majority of Russians still believe that the military action will last for a long time: almost half are sure that it will take more than a year. Three quarters believe that the military actions will end with a victory for Russia. On the issue of a possible escalation of the situation into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO, opinions in society today are equally divided, but six months ago such a conflict seemed more likely. About a third of the respondents believe that people like them are morally responsible for what is happening, and this distribution of responses has been maintained for a year and a half. Two thirds of Russians agree that Russia is paying too high a price for participating in a special military operation, but the majority of respondents do not consider its beginning a mistake.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for November 2023

About half of the respondents follow the Ukrainian events. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high(74%). Most of the respondents believe that the “special military operation” is being carried out successfully. At the same time, the share of Russians advocating peace talks continues to grow (up to 57% in November). This opinion is more common among women, respondents who trust information from social networks and YouTube channels, who do not approve of V. Putin’s activities as president of the Russian Federation, as well as those who believe that the country is moving on the wrong path. What is happening mainly causes respondents to be proud of Russia or alarm, fear and horror. One in four respondents (same as a year ago) donated clothes and belongings to refugees from Ukraine. At the same time, the share of respondents who collected money and things to help the participants of the “special military operation” increased to 40%.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for October 2023

The level of attention to Ukrainian events has not changed for three months; about half of Russians follow the events. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces has increased slightly. The highest level of support is demonstrated by older respondents who trust television and those who approve of the president’s activities. More than half of the respondents believe that the Special Military Operation is progressing successfully. At the same time, the number of supporters of peace negotiation has slightly increased over the past month (up to 55%). Respondents name as the main reason for starting the Special Military Operation “to protect the residents of Donbass”. The majority are confident that hostilities will continue for at least another six months (almost half say more than a year). If respondents had the opportunity to go back in time and influence the decision to start a Special Military Operation, then 41% would cancel such a decision, and 43% would support it. The majority are ready to support V. Putin if he announces the end of hostilities, but on the condition that new territories are preserved.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for September 2023

In September 2023, less than half of the respondents closely followed the events in Ukraine. The ideas about what is happening are quite stable. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high(72%). Just like last month, there are slightly more supporters of the start of negotiations than there are supporters of the continuation of hostilities. The military actions in Ukraine at the same time cause Russians to be proud of Russia, as well as anxiety and fear. There is a high level of concern about the shelling of Russian territories – 91%, the supply of weapons to Ukraine by Western countries – 79%, the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops – 62%. More than half of the respondents fear that a general mobilization may be announced.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assesments for late August 2023

In August, attention to Ukrainian events slightly decreased: less than half of the respondents closely monitor them. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high. Just like last month, there are slightly more supporters of the start of negotiations than there are supporters of the continuation of hostilities. However, most Russians are not ready to make concessions to Ukraine for the sake of ending the military operation and concluding a peace agreement.

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