In recent months, attention to the situation in Ukraine has been growing. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high. The share of supporters of the negotiations dropped in August, however their number increased in September. If the president had decided to end the military conflict today, the majority of Russians would have supported his decision, but only a third of the respondents would have returned the annexed territories. Half of the respondents believe that the special operation has caused more harm, justifying it with loss of life, military losses, and large expenditures on the Special Military Operation. Less than a third believes that the special operation has brought more benefits, meaning the return of territories, the protection of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass and the strengthening of Russia’s international position. Two thirds of the respondents believe that the special operation is successful, but this number has been decreasing throughout the year. Most Russians are against making concessions to Ukraine. The respondents call the exchange of prisoners of war and an immediate ceasefire the preferred terms of the peace treaty, the majority oppose the return of new territories and Ukraine’s accession to NATO.

The level of attention to Ukrainian events has been slowly increasing in the last two months, after a relatively small decrease in June 2024. Currently, 55% of respondents are following the events around Ukraine (combined “very carefully” and “quite carefully” responses), another third of respondents (32%) are following without much attention, 13% are not following at all.

Men (59%), older respondents (66% in the age group 55 years and older), respondents with higher education (59%), those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (58%), those who approve of V. Putin as president (56%), as well as television viewers (60%) are most closely following the situation in Ukraine.

Women (51%), young people under 24 (35%), respondents with secondary education and below (45%), those who think that things in the country are going on the wrong track (48%), those who disapprove of the activities of the incumbent president (45%) and those who get information from social networks (48%) pay less attention to what is going on.

The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine remains quite high – 76% (46% definitely support them and 30% rather support them). A total of 16% of Russians do not support them (7% definitely do not, 9% probably do not).

The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces is higher among men (82%), older respondents (80% in the age group 55 years and older), well-off respondents (78% among those who barely have enough to eat), residents of Moscow (84%), respondents who believe that things are in order the country is moving in the right direction (87%), those who approve of the activities of V. Putin as president (83%) as well as those consider TV their most trusted information source (87%).

The level of support for the actions of the Russian military is lower among women (71%), youth under 24 (63%), low-income respondents (69% among those who barely have enough to eat), those who believe that the country is moving on the wrong path (47%), those who disapprove of the president’s activities (35%), respondents who trust information from YouTube channels (66%).

While in August 2024, against the backdrop of the attack on Kursk region, the share of supporters of peace talks decreased (from 58% in July 2024 to 50%), in September their number increased slightly again to 54%. At the same time, the number of supporters of the continuation of hostilities decreased to 39%.

Women (64%), young Russians (66% aged 18-24), those who barely have enough to eat (64%), villagers (65%), those who believe that the country is moving on the wrong path declare the opinion on the need to move to peace negotiations more often than others (77%), the respondents who disapprove of the activities of V. Putin as president (71%), as well as those who trust information from social networks (63%).

The opinion on the need to continue military operations is more often shared by men (50%), older respondents (47% in the age group 55 years and older), wealthier Russians (40% among those who can afford durable goods), Muscovites (58%), respondents who believe that things are The country is moving in the right direction (45%), those who approve of the activities of the current president (41%), those who trust television as a source of information (46%).

As part of the September survey, the experiment conducted earlier was repeated once again. Using a random number generator, the respondents participating in the survey were divided into two equal groups, each of which was asked a question in one of two different formulations. In the first case, respondents were asked to support or not support the President’s decision to immediately end the military conflict (without any conditions). In the second case, it was proposed to support or not support the same decision, but on condition of the return of new territories.

The experiment showed that the majority of respondents (72%) would support V. Putin’s decision, if “that week” he had decided to end the military conflict with Ukraine (an increase of 10% since May 2023). However, if “that week” V. Putin decided to end the conflict and return the annexed territories, his decision would have been supported by a noticeably smaller proportion of Russians – about a third (31%).

It is worth noting that the number of Russians who would support the decision to end the conflict without additional conditions has been slowly but steadily growing since the first measurement in May 2023. However, the reluctance of the majority to move to peace agreements on condition of the return of territories remains almost unchanged.

Over the past 16 months, the share of Russians who believe that conducting a special military operation in Ukraine has done more harm has increased – 47% (an increase of 6% since May 2023), at the same time, the number of those who say that conducting a special operation has brought more benefit has decreased – 28% of respondents (a decrease of 10%).

More often than others, women (55%), young people under 24 years old (55%), residents of cities with population under 100 thousand people (52%), those who believe that things in the country are going in the wrong direction (77%), those who do not approve of V. Putin’s activity as president (74%) say that the special operation has caused more harm.

Men (38%), older respondents (34% in the age group of 55 and older), Muscovites (32%), those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (35%), and those who approve of the activities of the incumbent president (31%) say that the special operation was more beneficial than others.

Those who say that the special operation has caused more harm are referring primarily to the loss of life, general grief and suffering (52 %), military losses (21 %), deterioration of the economic situation (18 %), general rejection of the war – 13 %, deterioration of relations with other countries – 7 %, loss of civilian life – 7 %.

Those who believe that the special operation brought more benefits cite the return of territories, new territories – 26%, protection of the people of Donbass, Russians/Russian–speaking people – 24%, strengthening Russia’s position in the world – 16%, protection from fascism, Nazism – 12%, limiting NATO expansion – 11%, strengthening of the economy – 10%.

About 60% of respondents believe that the special military operation is progressing successfully. Their share gradually decreased throughout 2024 (by a total of 10% since February 2024).

Public opinion remains almost unchanged on the question of whether Russia should make certain concessions to Ukraine in order to end the military operation and sign a peace agreement. The majority of Russians will oppose concessions to Ukraine for the sake of ending the Special Military Operation and signing a peace agreement, 1 in 5 respondents agrees to make certain concessions (20%).

The most preferable conditions for Russians to conclude a peace agreement are the exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war – 87% (an increase of 6% since August 2023) and an immediate ceasefire between the two sides – 60% (an increase of 15% since May 2023). Other possible conditions for concluding a peace agreement look rather unacceptable: the return of the Zaporizhia, Kherson regions and Luhansk, Donetsk regions is preferable only for 7% and 5% (a decrease of 6% since November 2022) of respondents, respectively, agree to Ukraine’s accession to NATO, subject to the conclusion of a peace treaty, only 3% of respondents.