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The conflict with Ukraine and the attack on the Kursk region: key indicators in August 2024

The general attention to the events of the Special Military Operation has not changed significantly since last month; about half of Russians are more or less closely following this. At the same time, almost all respondents are aware of the events in the Kursk region. In this regard, Russians are most concerned about the deaths of civilians and the very fact of an attack on Russian territory. Most of the respondents do not expect a second wave of mobilisation and do not see the need for it, but concern about this issue has grown. Support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces still remains high. Over the past month, the number of supporters of peace talks has decreased, while supporters of continued military operations have grown. Over the past year, four out of ten respondents have collected things or money for the participants of the Special Military Operation, and a fifth of the respondents participated in providing assistance to affected residents of border regions.

The level of attention to Ukrainian events has stabilized after a small surge in March 2024, now 52% of respondents are following the events (the sum of the answers is “very carefully” and “quite carefully”), another third of respondents (35%) are following without much attention, 12% are not following at all.

The situation around Ukraine is most closely monitored by men (55%), older respondents (62% in the age group 55 years and older), TV viewers (60%), as well as those who support the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine (59%). Women (50%), respondents under the age of 24 (32%), respondents receiving information from social networks (38%) and those who do not support the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (30%) are less closely watching what is happening.

The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine remains quite high – 78% (43% definitely support and 35% rather support). A total of 17% of Russians do not support it (7% definitely do not, 9% probably do not).

The level of support for the actions of the Russian army is higher among men (81%), respondents aged 40-54 (83%), respondents who barely have enough for clothes and who can afford durable goods (79%), residents of Moscow (85%), respondents who believe that things are in the country they are going in the right direction (88%), who approve of the activities of V. Putin as president (85%), as well as those who trust television as a source of information (88%).

The level of support for the actions of the Russian military is lower among women (75%), respondents aged 18-24 (69%), respondents who barely have enough to eat (72%), residents of cities with a population of more than 500 thousand people (73%), those who believe that the country is moving on the wrong path (51%), those who disapprove of the president’s activities (36%), respondents who trust information from social networks and YouTube channels (68% each).

After a short decline in August 2024, the share of respondents in favor of continuing military operations increased again – 41% (an increase of 7 percentage points). Every second person speaks about the need to move to peace negotiations (a drop in this proportion of respondents by 8 percentage points).

Women (56%), young Russians (66% aged 18-24), respondents with secondary education and below (58%), those who barely have enough to eat (55%), villagers (54%) share the opinion on the need to move to peace negotiations more often than other groups those who believe that the country is moving on the wrong path (70%), the respondents who disapprove of the activities of V. Putin as president (74%), those who trust information from telegram channels (54%) and those who do not support the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine (86%).

Men (52%), respondents aged 55 and over (47%), respondents with higher education (47%), more affluent Russians (43% among those who can afford durable goods), Muscovites (61%) share the opinion on the need to continue military operations more often than others. respondents who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (49%), approve of the activities of the current president (44%), those who trust information from television (47%) and those who support the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine (49%).

Supporters of peace negotiations most often justify their opinion by saying that “a lot of victims, people are dying” – 48%, “so that the war ends” and “no one needs the war, tired, tired” – 13% each, “people need peace, a bad peace is better than war” – 7%.

Those who believe that it is necessary to continue military operations now most often talk about the need to “bring to an end, finish what they started” – 42%, “destroy, eradicate fascism, Nazism” – 18%, “peace negotiations are useless, they will not lead to anything” – 17%, “it is necessary to protect, secure Russia” – 10%.

40% of Russians collected money and things to help the participants of the special operation, just like a year ago. One in five respondents collected money and things to help residents of Russian border regions affected by military operations, another 15% of respondents collected money and things to help refugees from Ukraine and new regions.

The absolute majority of Russians (94%) are aware of the recent attack by the armed forces of Ukraine on the Kursk region: 51% of respondents are closely following the developments, 43% of respondents have heard something, but not in detail, and another 6% have not heard anything about it.

Almost all respondents are concerned about the attack by the armed forces of Ukraine on the Kursk region – 91% (very worried – 63%, rather worried – 28%), 9% of respondents in total are not concerned about these events. First of all, the reasons for concern are “civilian casualties” (41%), “an attack on Russian territory” (25%), as well as “weakness and unpreparedness of the authorities” (11%).

Over the past six months, the share of Russians who expect the announcement of the second wave of mobilisation in the coming months has increased slightly – 24% (+ 6 percentage points), more than half of the respondents say the opposite – 57%, their number has decreased by 8 percentage points, another 19% found it difficult to answer the question.

Respondents who barely have enough to eat (32%), those who believe that things in the country are going the wrong way (37%), those who do not approve of V. Putin’s activity as president (40%), those who trust information from YouTube channels (40%), those who do not support the actions of Russian armed forces in Ukraine (33%) expect the announcement of the second wave of mobilisation in the coming months more often than others.

The majority of Russians (60%) do not see the need to start a second wave of mobilisation in the coming months, but their number has decreased by 9 percentage points compared to February 2024. 18% of respondents believe that there is such a need.

Respondents aged 55 and over (20%), respondents who barely have enough to eat (22%), those who support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine (19%) say more about the need to start a second wave of mobilisation in the coming months

The respondents under 24 (12%), respondents who can afford durable goods (15%), those who do not support the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (16%) say more that there is no need to start mobilisation in the coming months.

The level of fear of the announcement of general mobilisation in Russia has increased against the background of military operations in Ukraine – 46%, however, the peak of fears occurred in September 2022, then two thirds of Russians expressed their fears. Almost half of the respondents – 48% – are not afraid of the announcement of general mobilisation. 

Women (58%), young respondents under the age of 24 (55%), respondents who barely have enough for food (49%), those who believe that things in the country are going the wrong way (60%), those who disapprove of the activities of V. Putin as president (58%), those who trust information from YouTube channels (54%), those who do not support the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (55%).

About half of Russians believe that a candidate’s combat experience will not affect his chances of being elected in any way (47%), another 40% of respondents believe that this rather increases his chances and only 5% of respondents replied that combat experience would rather lower his chances of being elected.

The opinion that a candidate’s combat experience in the elections is more likely to increase his chances of being elected is more common among respondents aged 55 and older (47%), those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (46%), those who disapprove of the activities of V. Putin as president (42%), viewers (47%).

METHODOLOGY

The survey by the Levada Center was conducted August 22 – 28 2024, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1619 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number. The data set is weighted by gender, age, level of education for each type of settlement (large cities, medium cities, small towns, villages) within each Federal district independently, in accordance with Rosstat data.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

Learn more about the methodology

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