Compared to 2020, the share of respondents who believe that in 2022 an economic crisis (+14%), major industrial disasters (+13%) and mass epidemics (+47%), has significantly grown. The number of Russians expecting ethnic conflicts, a war with NATO or neighbouring countries has also increased. Since 2017, the share of Russians expecting the year to bring corruption scandals and minister resignations as well as popular protests, has remained stable.
Can the following things possibly happen in Russia this year?
(year of survey)
Economic crisis?
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 19 |
| Probably yes | 24 | 18 | 28 | 37 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 36 | 38 | 43 | 38 | 44 |
| Probably no | 45 | 44 | 40 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 20 | 27 | 29 | 26 | 35 | 22 |
| Definitely no | 13 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Can’t say | 12 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Major industrial disasters?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Probably yes | 34 | 36 | 46 | 43 | 38 | 28 | 31 | 23 | 30 | 26 | 27 | 35 |
| Probably no | 28 | 32 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 38 | 33 | 38 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 31 |
| Definitely no | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Can’t say | 24 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
Mass epidemics?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| Probably yes | 26 | 28 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 20 | 47 |
| Probably no | 37 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 45 | 47 | 18 |
| Definitely no | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 6 |
| Can’t say | 23 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 6 |
High-profile corruption scandals and resignations of ministers?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 14 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 21 |
| Probably yes | 46 | 47 | 50 | 55 | 48 | 42 | 43 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 50 | 48 |
| Probably no | 16 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| Definitely no | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Can’t say | 19 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
Coup d’etat?
| 1999 | 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Probably yes | 35 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Probably no | 26 | 44 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 43 | 51 | 36 | 36 | 42 | 46 | 41 | 45 | 39 |
| Definitely no | 16 | 36 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 28 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| Can’t say | 12 | 9 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
Mass unrest and popular protests?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Probably yes | 27 | 40 | 50 | 45 | 37 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 30 | 36 | 38 | 36 |
| Probably no | 36 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 42 | 40 | 32 | 34 | 30 |
| Definitely no | 13 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 25 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| Can’t say | 19 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Ethnic conflicts?
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Probably yes | 42 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 20 | 18 | 28 |
| Probably no | 30 | 41 | 38 | 45 | 44 | 45 | 50 | 37 |
| Definitely no | 6 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 14 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| Can’t say | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
Armed conflict with a neighbouring country?
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Probably yes | 18 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 19 | 30 | 20 | 29 |
| Probably no | 44 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 39 | 34 | 43 | 48 | 38 | 45 | 35 |
| Definitely no | 22 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 13 | 16 | 22 | 18 |
| Can’t say | 14 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
Armed conflict with the USA/NATO countries?
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Probably yes | 11 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 19 |
| Probably no | 41 | 40 | 46 | 47 | 42 | 46 | 37 |
| Definitely no | 27 | 27 | 31 | 15 | 26 | 29 | 26 |
| Can’t say | 16 | 21 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
Aggravation in the North Caucasus?
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | |
| Definitely yes | 8 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Probably yes | 41 | 29 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 18 | 14 | 20 |
| Probably no | 27 | 36 | 28 | 34 | 30 | 30 | 38 | 37 | 41 | 46 | 45 | 49 | 39 |
| Definitely no | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 20 |
| Can’t say | 17 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
METHODOLOGY
The survey by the Levada Center was conducted December 16 – 22, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1640 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the total number of participants along with data from previous surveys.
The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%
The ANO Levada Center is included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.