This survey was carried out August 22–28, 2019 with a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1608 people age 18 or older from 137 localities in 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as a percentage of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.
The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/95%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%
Protest Potential
The tables below show data for the last three years; all of the trends concerning the probability of protests in public opinion, beginning in 1994, and peoples’ readiness to participate in them can be seen in these indicators.
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW POSSIBLE ARE LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA AGAINST A DECLINE IN CITIZENS’ QUALITY OF LIFE AND IN DEFENSE OF PERSONAL RIGHTS? (one answer)
Jun. 17 | Sep. 17 | Dec. 17 | Mar. 18 | Jul. 18 | Nov. 18 | Feb. 19 | May 19 | Aug. 19 | |
Entirely possible | 28 | 26 | 23 | 17 | 41 | 37 | 34 | 26 | 34 |
Unlikely | 63 | 69 | 70 | 75 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 69 | 62 |
I don’t know, it is difficult to say |
9 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
IF THESE KINDS OF LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATION OCCUR, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE OR NOT? (one answer)
Jun. 17 | Sep. 17 | Dec. 17 | Mar. 18 | Jul. 18 | Nov. 18 | Feb. 19 | May 19 | Aug. 19 | |
I most likely would | 15 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 27 | 27 |
I most likely would not | 77 | 80 | 81 | 86 | 66 | 66 | 69 | 69 | 68 |
It is difficult to say | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
IN YOUR OPINION, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT A POLITICAL PROTEST (DEMONSTRATION, RALLY, STRIKE) MIGHT BE HELD IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA? (one answer)
Jun. 17 | Sep. 17 | Dec. 17 | Mar. 18 | Jul. 18 | Nov. 18 | Feb. 19 | May 19 | Aug. 19 | |
Entirely possible | 23 | 21 | 19 | 12 | 34 | 30 | 28 | 24 | 30 |
Unlikely | 68 | 73 | 74 | 80 | 60 | 65 | 68 | 71 | 65 |
I don’t know, it is difficult to say |
9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
IF THESE KINDS OF LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS OCCUR, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE OR NOT? (one answer)
Jun. 17 | Sep. 17 | Dec. 17 | Mar. 18 | Jul. 18 | Nov. 18 | Feb. 19 | May 19 | Aug. 19 | |
I most likely would | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 22 | 20 |
I most likely would not | 80 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 72 | 74 | 75 | 74 | 76 |
It is difficult to say | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Protests in Moscow
DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW RELATED TO CERTAIN CANDIDATES NOT BEING ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTION TO THE MOSCOW CITY DUMA? (one answer)
Aug. 19 | |
I have been paying close attention to how this situation is developing | 16 |
I have heard something about it | 47 |
This is the first time I’ve heard about this | 37 |
HOW DID YOU LEARN ABOUT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW? (as a percentage of those who are following this and have heard something about it; respondents were given a card with a list and could name more than one answer and/or write in their own; ranked in descending order)
Aug. 19 | |
Major TV channels like “Channel One,” “Russia-1,” “Russia-24,” “NTV” | 55 |
Internet news sites | 28 |
Social media | 23 |
YouTube, vlogs | 12 |
Family, friends, neighbors | 11 |
Radio | 7 |
Local media outlets | 5 |
Small private/cable TV channels like RBC, “TV Rain” | 4 |
Newspapers | 3 |
Other | <1 |
It is difficult to say | 2 |
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THESE PROTESTS? (given to all participants; one answer)
Aug. 19 | |
Positive | 23 |
Neutral, indifferent | 45 |
Negative | 25 |
It is difficult to say | 7 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT MADE PEOPLE GO PROTEST? (given to all participants; respondents were given a card and could choose more than one answer; ranked in descending order)
Aug. 19 | |
Dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in Russia | 41 |
Dissatisfaction with government policies | 34 |
Dissatisfaction with independent candidates not being allowed in the election | 28 |
Dissatisfaction with the dispersion of the protests and police violence | 15 |
Interest, curiosity, came to be with others | 11 |
Many came because they were paid to do so* (“don’t know who”; “USA/EU/the West”; “protest organizers/the candidates”; “others”; “vested interests”; “Navalny”; “the opposition”; “the government/officials”) | 11 |
Other | 2 |
It is difficult to say | 16 |
* If the respondent gave this answer, he or she was asked to clarify who exactly “paid”; answers in the parentheses are ranked from most to least frequently named responses.
AS YOU MAY KNOW, MORE THAN 1000 PEOPLE WERE DETAINED DURING THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW. IN YOUR OPINION, HOW DID THE POLICE, OMON (SPECIAL PURPOSE MOBILE UNIT), AND THE NATIONAL GUARD ACT WHILE DETAINING THE PROTEST PARTICIPANTS? (given to all participants; one answer)
Aug. 19 | |
They acted reasonably, within the law | 32 |
They acted violently and used unjustified force | 41 |
It is difficult to say | 27 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHY WERE SEVERAL DOZEN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS TO THE MOSCOW STATE DUMA? (given to all participants; one answer)
Aug. 19 | |
Because independent candidates were not able to collect the necessary number of signatures | 30 |
Because the Moscow authorities are afraid of competition from independent politicians | 45 |
Other | 3 |
It is difficult to say | 22 |
SOME RUSSIAN POLITICIANS MAINTAIN THAT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW OCCURED AS A RESULT OF WESTERN INTERFERENCE IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN. IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS THIS SORT OF INTERFERENCE? (respondents were given a card and could only give one answer)
Aug. 19 | |
Western interference is one of the main reasons for the protests in Moscow | 26 |
Even if there were attempts to interfere, it’s unlikely this had any effect | 26 |
There was no Western interference in the Moscow elections, this is an attempt to slander the protesters | 32 |
It is difficult to say | 16 |
Attitudes Toward the Protests in Relation to Sources of Information
Total sample | Source of information about the protests in Moscow | ||
Major TV channels (“Channel One,” “Russia-1,” etc.) | Internet sites + social media + vlogs | ||
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THESE PROTESTS? | |||
1. Positive | 23 | 18 | 40 |
2. Neutral, indifferent | 45 | 38 | 39 |
3. Negative | 25 | 40 | 18 |
9. It is difficult to say | 7 | 4 | 4 |
WHAT DO YOU THINK MADE PEOPLE GO PROTEST? | |||
1. Dissatisfaction with independent candidates not being allowed in the election | 28 | 27 | 45 |
2. Dissatisfaction with the dispersion of the protests and police violence | 15 | 10 | 27 |
3. Dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in Russia | 41 | 36 | 51 |
4. Dissatisfaction with government policies | 34 | 28 | 47 |
5. Interest, curiosity, came to be with others | 11 | 14 | 10 |
6. Many came because they were paid to do so | 11 | 19 | 13 |
7. Other | 2 | 3 | 2 |
8. It is difficult to say | 16 | 12 | 4 |
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW DID THE POLICE, OMON (SPECIAL PURPOSE MOBILE UNIT), AND THE NATIONAL GUARD ACT WHILE DETAINING THE PROTESTERS? | |||
1. They acted reasonably, within the law | 32 | 50 | 23 |
2. They acted violently and used unjustified force | 41 | 31 | 66 |
9. It is difficult to say | 27 | 19 | 12 |
WHY WERE SEVERAL DOZEN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS TO THE MOSCOW STATE DUMA? | |||
1. Because independent candidates were not able to collect the necessary number of signatures | 30 | 44 | 24 |
2. Because the Moscow authorities are afraid of competition from independent politicians | 45 | 36 | 63 |
3. Other | 3 | 5 | 4 |
9. It is difficult to say | 22 | 16 | 9 |
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT THE WEST INTERFERED IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN? | |||
1. Western interference is one of the main reasons for the protests in Moscow | 26 | 41 | 21 |
2. Even if there were attempts to interfere, it’s unlikely this had any effect | 26 | 27 | 29 |
3. There was no Western interference in the Moscow elections, this is an attempt to slander the protesters | 32 | 22 | 44 |
9. It is difficult to say | 16 | 11 | 6 |
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).
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