Press-releases

Monitoring perception of the Russian economic situation

This survey took place between 18 and 21 December 2015 / 22 and 25 January 2016 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions.  The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies does not exceed 3.4%.

IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT IS THE GREATEST THREAT TO RUSSIA TODAY? (multiple answers)

  Feb.08 Jan.09 Jan.10 Jan.11 Jan.12 Mar.13 Jan.14 Jan.16
Rising prices, impoverishment of the population 51 55 47 62 58 55 49 53
Economic crisis 22 59 39 30 38 26 29 49
Growth of unemployment 30 56 43 42 40 30 31 35
Being pulled into conflicts outside the country 14 8 7 6 9 6 12 27
Growing uncertainty of the future -* 22 14 17 20 22 12 16
Increased tension with western countries 12 5 3 3 5 4 7 15
Weakness, incompetence of the country’s leadership 14 7 15 14 20 16 13 14
Rise in crime 32 23 29 29 26 27 21 13
Increased dependence on the West, Russia turning into a third-rate power 15 7 11 12 16 15 11 10
Conflict with neighboring countries/CIS states 8 13 5 6 6 4 9 10
Breakup of Russia into separate regions 18 5 9 10 10 14 12 10
Abuse of power by Russian authorities 20 8 17 18 19 18 12 8
Civil war 3 2 3 8 4 5 8
Colonization of Russia, plundering of its national wealth by foreigners 17 6 10 14 12 14 12 8
Long lines, shortages of food, rationing -* 4 2 4 2 4 3 5
Redistribution of wealth, taking away honest earnings 4 2 5 5 4 6 3 3
New war/exacerbation of the situation with the Caucasus 9 5 6 8 5 7 9 3
Mass repressions, persecution of dissidents 2 1 1 2 2 4 2 3
Restriction of freedoms (freedom of speech, right to leave the country) 2 <1 3 2 2 3 3 3
Threat to private property, infringing on private business 3 2 4 3 4 4 4 3
Establishment of a dictatorship 3 1 4 4 5 5 3 2
Other 6 7 9 8 6 6 5 3
It is difficult to say 10 5 8 4 5 9 7 5

WHAT, FOR YOU PERSONALLY, IS MOST PROBLEMATIC AND DANGEROUS ABOUT THE PRESENT SITUATION? (one answer)

  Jan.15 Jan.16
Rising prices 41 34
Decreased quality of living, impossibility of sustaining the quality of life of the past few years 16 15
Loss of work/possibility of loss of work for you or your family members 8 14
Devaluation of money, falling ruble exchange rate 15 14
Decreased income for your family 6 10
Decrease in production, economic collapse in the country 5 5
Political instability, unclear future 6 4
Other 1 1
It is difficult to say 2 3

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT RUSSIA IS EXPERIENCING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?*

  Dec.14 Mar.15 Sept.15 Dec.15
Definitely agree 38 28 38 43
Probably agree 41 46 39 39
Probably disagree 10 15 14 10
Definitely disagree 2 3 3 2
It is difficult to say 9 7 7 6

* In December, 2014 and March, 2015 this question was given in the following form: “DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT RUSSIA IS FALLING INTO AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?”

HOW LONG, IN YOUR OPINION, WILL THIS CRISIS LAST? (as a percentage of those respondents who believe Russia is experiencing an economic crisis; one answer)

  Dec.14 Mar.15 Sept.15 Dec.15
2-3 months 4 3 1 1
Half a year 8 5 4 4
A year or a year and a half 19 19 23 18
No less than two years 21 22 24 23
This crisis will be protracted, and its effects will be felt for many years 16 17 23 21
It is difficult to say at this moment how long the crisis will last and how serious it will be 21 24 16 22
It is difficult to say 12 10 10 12

DOES YOUR FAMILY BUY “EMERGENCY” PRODUCTS, AND IF SO, HAVE YOU MADE FEWER OR MORE SUCH PURCHASES IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS?

  Nov.07 Sept.10 Mar.14 Mar.15 Sept.15 Dec.15
More than usual 6 11 10 15 10 8
Fewer than usual 8 12 10 12 11 11
Neither more nor fewer 39 40 50 34 40 41
Our family does not buy “emergency” products 44 35 28 36 36 37
It is difficult to say 3 3 3 2 3 3

HAS YOUR FAMILY’S EVERYDAY CONSUMPTION (FOOD, ESSENTIAL CONSUMER GOODS, MEDICINES, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, ETC) CHANGED IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS, AND IF SO, HOW EXACTLY?*

  Aug.09 Sept.10 Sept.15 Dec.15
Improved significantly 1 2 1 1
Improved somewhat 6 8 4 4
No change 58 59 51 44
Worsened somewhat 27 24 35 40
Worsened significantly 7 5 7 9
It is difficult to say 1 3 2 2

* In August, 2009 and September, 2010 this question was given in the following form: “HAS YOUR FAMILY’S EVERYDAY CONSUMPTION (FOOD, ESSENTIAL CONSUMER GOODS, MEDICINES, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, ETC) CHANGED IN THE PAST 2-3 MONTHS, AND IF SO, HOW EXACTLY?”

IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE SELECTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN YOUR PLACE OF RESIDENCE INCREASED, STAYED THE SAME, OR DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS?

  Jan.09 Sept.10 Jan.15 Sept.15 Dec.15
Increased 13 10 4 5 7
Stayed the same 72 74 70 67 67
Decreased 11 12 21 23 22
It is difficult to say 4 5 6 6 4

DO YOU AGREE WITH THE OPINION THAT PRICES IN RUSSIA ARE RISING SHARPLY, THE STANDARD OF LIVING IS DECREASING, AND THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SITUATION IS WORSENING?

  Dec.15
Definitely agree 36
Probably agree 39
Probably disagree 13
Definitely disagree 3
It is difficult to say 10

WHAT, IN YOUR OPINION, HAS MOST OF ALL CAUSED PRICES IN RUSSIA TO RISE, THE STANDARD OF LIVING TO DECREASE, AND THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SITUATION TO WORSEN? (as a percentage of those respondents who believe that prices in Russia are rising, etc.; multiple answers)

  Dec.15
The fall in oil prices 47
Governmental corruption 33
Peculiarities of the Russian economy: an overly large public sector, ineffective state-bureaucratic business management, state influence on the economy 29
Western sanctions 27
Increased spending on defense and maintenance of the government bureaucracy to the detriment of social spending (health care, education, science, support of the disadvantaged) 26
Huge expenses related to the integration of Crimea, support of Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics 25
Peculiarities of the Russian economy: technological backwardness, remnants of the Soviet industrial sector, military-industrial priority 25
Russian policies vis-a-vis Crimea and Ukraine 20
Russia’s retaliatory sanctions (ban on western-imported foodstuffs) 14
Other 2
It is difficult to say 3

OVER THE COURSE OF A YEAR EVERY FAMILY BUYS MANY GOODS AND SERVICES, AND THE PRICES OF THESE GOODS AND SERVICES CHANGE DIFFERENTLY. NONETHELESS, BY WHAT PERCENT, ON AVERAGE, HAVE THE PRICES OF THE GOODS AND SERVICES YOUR FAMILY BUYS RISEN IN JANUARY OF 2016 AS COMPARED TO THEIR PRICES IN JANUARY OF 2015?

  Jan.15 Nov.15 Jan.16
Up to 15% 9 7 9
15% – 50% 54 63** 59**
50% – 100% 23 19 21
More than 100% 3 5 4
It is difficult to say 12 6 8

In January, 2015 this question was given in the following formula: “BY WHAT PERCENT, ON AVERAGE, HAVE THE PRICES OF GOODS AND SERVICES YOUR FAMILY BUYS RISEN IN JANUARY OF 2015 AS COMPARED TO THEIR PRICES IN JANUARY OF 2014?”. In November, 2015: “…IN NOVEMBER OF 2015 AS COMPARED TO THEIR PRICES IN OCTOBER OF 2014?”

** Total of «15%-30% and «30%-50%» positions.

SPEAKING OF YOUR FAMILY, WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS AND THOSE OF YOUR FAMILY MEMBERS? WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS IS CLOSEST TO YOUR OWN GOALS?

  Jan.01 Apr.04 Mar.10 Jan.16
Survive, if only on the most basic level 21 18 23 14
Live no worse than most other families in your city, region 46 50 55 58
Live better than most other families in your city, region 19 21 15 20
Live like the average Western European or American family 11 8 6 6
Live better than the average Western European or American family 3 3 2 2

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly  Monterey Institute of International Studies).

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