This survey took place between 22 and 25 January 2016 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600/800 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies does not exceed 3.4/4.1%%.
Maidan: Two years later
DID YOU FOLLOW THE PROTESTS IN KIEV TWO YEARS AGO (THE “MAIDAN PROTESTS”)? (N=800)*
| Dec.13 | Jan.14 | Jan.16 | |
| Very closely | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| Somewhat closely | 21 | 35 | 36 |
| Not very closely | 40 | 40 | 35 |
| Not at all | 17 | 10 | 11 |
| Haven’t heard anything about this | 18 | 6 | 5 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT HAPPENED IN KIEV AT THAT TIME? (as a percentage of those respondents who followed the protests)*
| Jan.14 | Jan.16 | |
| A peaceful protest | 4 | 8 |
| An attempt at violent coup | 84 | 80 |
| It is difficult to say | 12 | 12 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT, LED PEOPLE TO PROTEST IN KIEV AT THAT TIME? (multiple answers; as a percentage of those respondents who followed the protests)*
| Dec.13 | Jan.14 | Jan.16 | |
| Influence of the West, attempting to pull Ukraine into the western political orbit | 41 | 44 | 46 |
| Nationalistic feelings | 27 | 35 | 27 |
| Anger at Yanukovich’s corrupt regime | 9 | 14 | 21 |
| A desire to free Ukraine from Russia economically and politically, become independent | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| Desire to make Ukraine a civilized country like other European nations | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| Feeling of dignity at odds with authorities’ abuse of power | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Protest of Ukrainian riot police/brutality of internal troops | – | 5 | 4 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| It is difficult to say | 16 | 13 | 9 |
* In 2013-2014 these questions were phrased in the present tense: “Are you following…,” “What is happening…,” “what is leading…”
Perception of events in Ukraine. Crimea
ARE YOU FOLLOWING RECENT EVENTS IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||||||||
| XII | XII | I | II |
13-16 III |
20-23 III |
IV | V | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | I | |
| Very closely | 4 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Quite closely | 21 | 35 | 43 | 43 | 35 | 40 | 33 | 37 | 36 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
| Not very closely | 40 | 41 | 35 | 33 | 40 | 34 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 41 | 43 | 42 | 46 | 48 |
| Not at all | 17 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| I haven’t heard anything about them | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
CAN YOU SAY THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THESE EVENTS? (as a percentage of those respondents who follow the events)
| 7-10 March 2014 |
21-24 March 2014 |
Apr.14 | May.14 | Jun.14 | Jul.14 | Aug.14 | Jan.16 | |
| Very well | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Somewhat well | 26 | 36 | 31 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 34 | 23 |
| Not very well | 53 | 45 | 50 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| Not at all. I don’t know what to believe and what not to believe | 15 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| It is difficult to say | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
DO YOU SUPPORT RUSSIA’S ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA? (N=1600)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||||||
| XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VII | VIII | IX | XI | I | |
| Definitely yes | 50 | 50 | 52 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 51 | 50 | 54 | 48 | 47 |
| Probably yes | 36 | 34 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 35 | 36 |
| Probably no | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Definitely no | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| It is difficult to say | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA DONE MORE GOOD OR BAD FOR RUSSIA? (N=1600)
| Mar.15 | Aug.15 | Nov.15 | Jan.16 | |
| More good | 70 | 59 | 59 | 61 |
| More bad | 18 | 23 | 22 | 20 |
| It is difficult to say | 12 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE PRESENT SITUATION IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)
| Oct.15 | Nov.15 | Jan.16 | |
| Good | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Quiet | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Tense | 64 | 60 | 65 |
| Critical, volatile | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| It is difficult to say | 9 | 7 | 9 |
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW WILL THE SITUATION IN EASTERN UKRAINE CHANGE OVER THE COMING YEAR? (N=1600)
| Nov.15 | Jan.16 | |
| It will improve | 14 | 13 |
| It will worsen | 24 | 27 |
| It will remain the same | 46 | 44 |
| It is difficult to say | 15 | 16 |
IN YOUR OPINION, ARE THERE CURRENTLY RUSSIAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)
| Sept.14 | Nov.14 | Feb.15 | Jul.15 | Jan.16 | |
| Yes | 29 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| No | 49 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 52 |
| It is difficult to say | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
DO YOU AGREE THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE? (N=1600)
| Apr.14 | Aug.14 | Feb.15 | Jan.16 | |
| Yes | 34 | 26 | 34 | 25 |
| No | 57 | 59 | 60 | 65 |
| It is difficult to say | 9 | 15 | 7 | 11 |
WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPINIONS ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS DO YOU MOST AGREE? (N=1600)
| Russia’s relations with Ukraine should be like those with other countries – closed borders, visas, customs | Russia and Ukraine should be independent but friendly nations with open borders, no visas or customs | Russia and Ukraine should unite into one country | It is difficult to say | |
| Jan.16 | 32 | 52 | 11 | 5 |
| Sept.15 | 25 | 59 | 8 | 7 |
| May 15 | 30 | 54 | 10 | 6 |
| Jan.15 | 33 | 52 | 8 | 8 |
| Sept.14 | 26 | 62 | 7 | 5 |
| May.14 | 28 | 54 | 12 | 6 |
| Mar.14 | 16 | 50 | 28 | 7 |
| Jan.14 | 19 | 59 | 16 | 6 |
| Oct.13 | 23 | 55 | 16 | 6 |
| May.13 | 19 | 58 | 15 | 8 |
| Jan.13 | 13 | 64 | 18 | 6 |
| Sept.12 | 14 | 60 | 20 | 6 |
| May.12 | 17 | 62 | 14 | 7 |
| Jan.12 | 16 | 61 | 16 | 8 |
| Sept.11 | 16 | 63 | 14 | 6 |
| May.11 | 16 | 64 | 15 | 5 |
| Jan.11 | 20 | 61 | 13 | 6 |
| Sept.10 | 16 | 60 | 18 | 6 |
| May.10 | 17 | 64 | 13 | 6 |
| Jan.10 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 6 |
| Sept.09 | 25 | 55 | 13 | 7 |
| May.09 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 6 |
| Jan.09 | 29 | 51 | 12 | 8 |
| Sept.08 | 24 | 52 | 13 | 11 |
| Mar.08 | 19 | 56 | 19 | 6 |
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).