Russians believe that mass demonstrations with certain demands are unlikely to be possible in the near future. The respondents are not ready to go out to protest actions, even if they take place. Less than half of the respondents know about the protests of the wives and mothers of the mobilized men.
Estimates of the possibility of speeches with economic requirements have practically not changed since November 2022 – 17% of Russians believe that speeches with economic requirements are possible and 11% are ready to personally take part in them if such speeches take place. The protest potential is higher among those who believe that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction (28% are ready to participate), and those who barely have enough money to eat (19%).
There is a steady trend towards reducing the protest potential within the framework of the political agenda – only 15% of Russians believe that speeches with political demands are possible and 8% are ready to personally participate if the speeches take place, the last time such data was recorded in May 2022 (16% and 9%, respectively). The protest potential is higher among those who believe that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction (28% are ready to participate), and those who can barely afford food (19%).
Anti-war protests
43% of Russians have heard about the protests of the wives and mothers of the mobilized men (10% have heard a lot, 33% – in general terms). More than half of the respondents (56%) heard about it for the first time during the survey.
At the same time, the general attitude towards people who go out to protest actions for the return of loved ones from the Special Military Operation zone is rather neutrally indifferent (42%), whereas among those who are aware of such protests, the attitude is rather positive (37% among those who have heard something, 64% among those who heard a lot). There is a higher proportion of those who have a positive attitude towards the participants of protest actions in the groups of those who can only afford food (38%), who live in rural settlements (35%), who believe that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction (50%) and who disapprove of the president’s activities (54%).
In addition, it can be noted that Russians are more likely to treat those who go out to protest for the return of their loved ones from the Special Military Operation zone more positively (29%) than those who go out to anti–war protests (18 and 19% – rather positively)
METHODOLOGY
The survey by the Levada Center was conducted January 25 – 31 2024, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1621 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents.
The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%