The majority of respondents believe that a new wave of mobilization will be announced in the next 3 months. More than half of the respondents are not ready to pay an additional 1-2 thousand rubles for army maintenance. Half support raising the upper threshold of military age. Most of the respondents are aware of the changes in the law on military service, the prevailing feelings in this regard are negative.
More than half (56%) of respondents believe that a second wave of partial mobilization may be announced in the next 3 months: 15% – definitely think so, 41% – find it possible. About a third (31%) hold the opposite opinion. The greatest confidence in this is characteristic of respondents aged 25-39: among them, 62% of respondents are inclined to this. Respondents 55 years and older are least supportive of it (48%).
Most respondents (51%) are not ready to give 1-2 thousand rubles a month for the needs of the army and to increase payments to soldiers participating in the Special Military Operation. Most of the respondents expressing their willingness to participate in this are observed among the most affluent respondents (50%) and among residents of cities with a population of up to 100 thousand people (52%), the least – among Muscovites (32%) and respondents who can barely afford food (38%).
Slightly more than half (52%) of respondents support the idea of raising the upper threshold of the conscription age, 37% do not support it. The majority of respondents supporting this decision are among the youngest respondents (52%), the least among respondents aged 25-39 (47%).
69% of respondents are aware of the law introducing a unified register of military service, electronic military draft summonses and new restrictions for draft dodgers: a quarter are well aware of it, 44% have heard something, but without details. About a third (30%) have not heard anything about it. Respondents aged 40-54 (71%), Muscovites (81%), as well as those who trust Internet publications and Telegram channels as the main sources of information (about 82%) are the most aware of this law. Fewer respondents who are familiar with the law are represented among respondents aged 18-24 (63%), rural residents (61%) and among those who trust TV as the main source of information and who do not trust any sources of information (66% each).
Compared to November last year, support for the opinion that every real man should serve in the army has increased from 49% to 54%, while not reaching the level of May 2019. At the same time, the share of those who consider service in the army as a duty that needs to be paid to the state even if it does not meet personal interests, has dropped from 34% to 32%, Another 9% (in November 2022 – 13%) believe that service in the conscription army should be avoided.
The greatest support for the first opinion (“every real man should serve in the army”) is represented among respondents 55 years and older – there are 63%, the least among respondents 18-24 years (31%). At the same time, in the latter group, those who see conscription service as a duty that needs to be paid to the country are more strongly represented (44%).
36% of respondents believe that the Russian army should be formed entirely on a contractual basis, about half (47%) believe that the army should be formed both under contract and conscription, 11% — that it is completely conscripted. Since November last year, this ratio has practically not changed. The majority of supporters of a fully contracted army are represented among respondents aged 18-24 (43%), the least among older respondents: 32%. At the same time, in the latter category, half of the respondents hold the opinion that a mixed type of army formation is necessary.
METHODOLOGY
The survey by the Levada Center was conducted October 20 – 26 2023, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1623 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents.
The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%
The ANO Levada Center is included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.