This survey took place between December 13–19, 2018 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 136 localities of 52 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.
The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%
HOW DO YOU THINK THE COMING YEAR WILL BE FOR YOU IN COMPARISON WITH THE PAST YEAR? (the year in question is listed)
| Definitely better | I really hope that it will be better | I don’t think it will be worse | I doubt anything will change | Next year might be worse than this one | It is difficult to say | |
| 2019 | 8 | 50 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 4 |
| 2018 | 6 | 49 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 6 |
| 2017 | 7 | 46 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 5 |
| 2016 | 5 | 41 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 5 |
| 2015 | 6 | 40 | 22 | 17 | 10 | 4 |
| 2014 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 6 |
| 2013 | 6 | 50 | 21 | 16 | 2 | 5 |
| 2012 | 6 | 50 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 4 |
| 2011 | 9 | 49 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 6 |
| 2010 | 9 | 48 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 7 |
| 2009 | 6 | 43 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 |
| 2008 | 11 | 45 | 17 | 18 | 6 | 3 |
| 2007 | 8 | 41 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 4 |
| 2006 | 6 | 46 | 18 | 19 | 7 | 4 |
| 2005 | 8 | 38 | 13 | 26 | 12 | 3 |
| 2004 | 7 | 47 | 21 | 19 | 3 | 4 |
| 2003 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 3 |
| 2002 | 7 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 4 |
| 2001 | 6 | 51 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 4 |
| 2000 | 6 | 46 | 17 | 18 | 6 | 7 |
| 1999 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 27 | 23 | 8 |
| 1998 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 25 | 9 | 11 |
| 1997 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 30 | 19 | 7 |
| 1996 | 4 | 33 | 19 | 25 | 12 | 7 |
| 1995 | 6 | 36 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 9 |
| 1994 | 6 | 42 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 7 |
| 1993 | 4 | 34 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 7 |
| 1992 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 18 | 44 | 7 |
| 1991 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 12 |
| 1990 | 4 | 40 | 12 | 22 | 13 | 9 |
DO YOU FEEL HOPEFUL, UNCERTAIN, OR ANXIOUS ABOUT THE COMING YEAR, 2019?
| Jan. 03 | Jan. 13 | Jan. 14 | Jan. 15 | Jan. 16 | Jan. 17 | Jan. 18 | Dec. 18 | |
| Hopeful | 50 | 51 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 57 | 62 | 64 |
| Uncertain | 21 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 14 |
| Anxious | 25 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| It is difficult to say | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY? (the year in question is listed)
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely calm | 12 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Likely calm | 48 | 46 | 51 | 48 | 54 | 55 | 41 | 33 | 48 | 46 |
| Likely challenging | 22 | 17 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 17 | 35 | 41 | 29 | 28 |
| Definitely challenging | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
| I don’t know | 14 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR RUSSIA’S ECONOMY? (the year in question is listed)
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely calm | 6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Likely calm | 37 | 37 | 40 | 24 | 39 | 41 | 17 | 10 | 25 | 21 |
| Likely challenging | 34 | 24 | 25 | 48 | 29 | 28 | 52 | 52 | 49 | 46 |
| Definitely challenging | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 10 | 19 |
| I don’t know | 17 | 26 | 25 | 18 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR POLITICAL LIFE IN RUSSIA? (the year in question is listed)
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely calm | 5 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Likely calm | 34 | 34 | 36 | 20 | 38 | 42 | 18 | 14 | 25 | 22 |
| Likely challenging | 32 | 24 | 27 | 47 | 27 | 27 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 43 |
| Definitely challenging | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 14 | 20 |
| I don’t know | 22 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 24 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR, RUSSIA WILL FACE… (the year being assessed is indicated)
… AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Probably | 24 | 18 | 28 | 37 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 36 | 38 | 43 |
| Probably not | 45 | 44 | 40 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 20 | 27 | 29 | 26 |
| Definitely not | 13 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| I don’t know | 12 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 16 | 10 |
… LARGE-SCALE TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Probably | 34 | 36 | 46 | 43 | 38 | 28 | 31 | 23 | 30 | 26 |
| Probably not | 28 | 32 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 38 | 33 | 38 | 36 | 42 |
| Definitely not | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 11 |
| I don’t know | 24 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 17 |
… LARGE-SCALE EPIDEMICS?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Probably | 26 | 28 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 19 |
| Probably not | 37 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 45 |
| Definitely not | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| I don’t know | 23 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
… HIGH-PROFILE CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE DISMISSAL OF VARIOUS MINISTERS?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 14 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| Probably | 46 | 47 | 50 | 55 | 48 | 42 | 43 | 46 | 47 | 48 |
| Probably not | 16 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| Definitely not | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| I don’t know | 19 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
…A COUP D’ETAT?*
| 1999 | 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Probably | 35 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 12 |
| Probably not | 26 | 44 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 43 | 51 | 36 | 36 | 42 | 46 | 41 |
| Definitely not | 16 | 36 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 28 | 34 |
| I don’t know | 12 | 9 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
… LARGE-SCALE UNREST AND PUBLIC PROTESTS?
| 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Probably | 27 | 40 | 50 | 45 | 37 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 30 | 36 |
| Probably not | 36 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 42 | 40 | 32 |
| Definitely not | 13 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 25 | 13 | 16 |
| I don’t know | 19 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
… LARGE-SCALE CONFLICT ON RUSSIAN SOIL?
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Probably | 42 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 20 |
| Probably not | 30 | 41 | 38 | 45 | 44 | 45 |
| Definitely not | 6 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 14 | 22 |
| I don’t know | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
… ARMED CONFLICT WITH ONE OF RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES?
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Probably | 18 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 19 | 30 |
| Probably not | 44 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 39 | 34 | 43 | 48 | 38 |
| Definitely not | 22 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 13 | 16 |
| I don’t know | 14 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
… WAR WITH THE USA OR NATO?
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Probably | 11 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| Probably not | 41 | 40 | 46 | 47 | 42 |
| Definitely not | 27 | 27 | 31 | 15 | 26 |
| I don’t know | 16 | 21 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
… A DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS?**
| 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Definitely | 8 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Probably | 41 | 29 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 18 |
| Probably not | 27 | 36 | 28 | 34 | 30 | 30 | 38 | 37 | 41 | 46 | 45 |
| Definitely not | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 17 |
| I don’t know | 17 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
* In 1998 the question was presented in the following way: “IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS A COUP D’ETAT TO OCCUR IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR OR TWO?”
** In 2005 the question was presented in the following way: “IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ARMED CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS REGION IN RUSSA?”
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).
The ANO Levada Center has been included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents. Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.