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Expectations for 2018 (II)

This survey took place between December 1-5, 2017 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed: 3.4% for indicators around 50%; 2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%; 2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%; 1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%.

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT DURING THE COMING YEAR, RUSSIA WILL FACE… (the year being assessed is indicated)

…AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018
Definitely 5 3 7 2 6 6 20 11 12
Probably 24 18 28 37 33 32 42 36 38
Probably not 45 44 40 34 37 40 20 27 29
Definitely not 13 12 7 7 8 5 5 6 5
I don’t know 12 22 19 19 16 17 13 20 16

…LARGE-SCALE TECHNICAL CATASTROPHES?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 7 7 5 8 6 5 6 4 6
Probably 34 36 46 43 38 28 31 23 30
Probably not 28 32 26 26 33 38 33 38 36
Definitely not 8 5 6 6 5 8 10 15 9
I don’t know 24 20 18 16 19 21 20 21 20

…MASS EPIDEMICS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 5
Probably 26 28 33 27 24 19 18 22 25
Probably not 37 39 36 37 44 46 43 42 41
Definitely not 10 8 9 12 9 15 17 15 13
I don’t know 23 20 19 20 19 15 19 17 16

…EXPLOSIVE CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE DISMISSAL OF VARIOUS MINISTERS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 14 13 10 16 17 9 10 14 16
Probably 46 47 50 55 48 42 43 46 47
Probably not 16 18 21 15 17 26 21 19 20
Definitely not 5 4 4 4 3 7 9 7 6
I don’t know 19 19 14 11 16 16 16 14 11

…A COUP D’ETAT?*

1999 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 11 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
Probably 35 9 11 14 17 16 10 10 8 7 12
Probably not 26 44 39 40 45 43 51 36 36 42 46
Definitely not 16 36 31 25 20 24 26 40 40 38 28
I don’t know 12 9 19 18 15 15 12 12 15 12 12

…MASS UNREST AND PUBLIC PROTESTS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 5 6 6 5 6 4 4 2 5
Probably 27 40 50 45 37 28 27 19 30
Probably not 36 28 25 31 35 38 37 42 40
Definitely not 13 8 6 8 8 16 18 25 13
I don’t know 19 18 13 12 15 14 15 13 12

…MASS ETHNIC CLASHES?

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 6 4 4 2 4
Probably 42 26 26 15 25
Probably not 30 41 38 45 44
Definitely not 6 15 17 24 14
I don’t know 15 13 15 14 13

…ARMED CONFLICT WITH A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY?

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 2 2 4 1 3 2 6 4 3 4
Probably 18 23 19 22 21 18 21 25 18 19
Probably not 44 38 38 42 40 44 39 34 43 48
Definitely not 22 16 18 17 18 15 19 16 20 13
I don’t know 14 22 21 19 18 20 15 21 17 15

…WAR WITH THE USA/NATO?

2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 5 2 2 4
Probably 11 11 8 19
Probably not 41 40 46 47
Definitely not 27 27 31 15
I don’t know 16 21 14 16

…A WORSENING OF THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS?**

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Definitely 8 4 6 3 5 6 7 5 2 5
Probably 41 29 32 30 35 36 22 23 20 24
Probably not 27 36 28 34 30 30 38 37 41 46
Definitely not 9 6 8 8 9 5 13 12 17 8
I don’t know 17 24 26 25 22 23 20 24 20 17

*In 1998, the question was phrased as follows: “HOW LIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT A COUP D’ETAT WILL HAPPEN IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR OR TWO?”

**In 2005, the question was phrased as follows: “IS IT POSSIBLE THAT A NEW ARMED CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS WILL DEVELOP IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR?”

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been forcibly included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.  Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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