This survey took place between December 1-5, 2017 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed: 3.4% for indicators around 50%; 2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%; 2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%; 1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%.
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT DURING THE COMING YEAR, RUSSIA WILL FACE… (the year being assessed is indicated)
…AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?
2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 11 | 12 |
Probably | 24 | 18 | 28 | 37 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 36 | 38 |
Probably not | 45 | 44 | 40 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 20 | 27 | 29 |
Definitely not | 13 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
I don’t know | 12 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
…LARGE-SCALE TECHNICAL CATASTROPHES?
2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Probably | 34 | 36 | 46 | 43 | 38 | 28 | 31 | 23 | 30 |
Probably not | 28 | 32 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 38 | 33 | 38 | 36 |
Definitely not | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
I don’t know | 24 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
…MASS EPIDEMICS?
2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Probably | 26 | 28 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 25 |
Probably not | 37 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 44 | 46 | 43 | 42 | 41 |
Definitely not | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
I don’t know | 23 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
…EXPLOSIVE CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE DISMISSAL OF VARIOUS MINISTERS?
2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 14 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 16 |
Probably | 46 | 47 | 50 | 55 | 48 | 42 | 43 | 46 | 47 |
Probably not | 16 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
Definitely not | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
I don’t know | 19 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
…A COUP D’ETAT?*
1999 | 2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Probably | 35 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 |
Probably not | 26 | 44 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 43 | 51 | 36 | 36 | 42 | 46 |
Definitely not | 16 | 36 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 28 |
I don’t know | 12 | 9 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 |
…MASS UNREST AND PUBLIC PROTESTS?
2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Probably | 27 | 40 | 50 | 45 | 37 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 30 |
Probably not | 36 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 42 | 40 |
Definitely not | 13 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
I don’t know | 19 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
…MASS ETHNIC CLASHES?
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Probably | 42 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 25 |
Probably not | 30 | 41 | 38 | 45 | 44 |
Definitely not | 6 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 14 |
I don’t know | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
…ARMED CONFLICT WITH A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY?
2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Probably | 18 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 19 |
Probably not | 44 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 39 | 34 | 43 | 48 |
Definitely not | 22 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 13 |
I don’t know | 14 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 15 |
…WAR WITH THE USA/NATO?
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Probably | 11 | 11 | 8 | 19 |
Probably not | 41 | 40 | 46 | 47 |
Definitely not | 27 | 27 | 31 | 15 |
I don’t know | 16 | 21 | 14 | 16 |
…A WORSENING OF THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS?**
2006 | 2007 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
Definitely | 8 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Probably | 41 | 29 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
Probably not | 27 | 36 | 28 | 34 | 30 | 30 | 38 | 37 | 41 | 46 |
Definitely not | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 8 |
I don’t know | 17 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 17 |
*In 1998, the question was phrased as follows: “HOW LIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT A COUP D’ETAT WILL HAPPEN IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR OR TWO?”
**In 2005, the question was phrased as follows: “IS IT POSSIBLE THAT A NEW ARMED CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS WILL DEVELOP IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR?”
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).
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