The survey took place between 20 and 23 February 2015 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 134 localities of 46 of the country’s regions. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies does not exceed 3.4%.
Possible results of presidential elections
|
Feb. 15 |
In % of all respondents |
In % of respondents who are decided on their vote |
| Vladimir Putin |
55 |
86 |
| Gennady Zyuganov |
5 |
7 |
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
3 |
4 |
| Sergei Shoigu |
1 |
1 |
| Alexei Navalny |
1 |
1 |
| Dmitry Medvedev |
<1 |
1 |
| Sergei Mironov |
<1 |
<1 |
| Others |
1 |
1 |
| I don’t know for whom I would vote |
11 |
– |
| I don’t know whether I would vote |
12 |
– |
| I wouldn’t vote |
13 |
– |
Data in Action
IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH OF THE CURRENT POLITICIANS WOULD YOU VOTE? (open answer; politicians were named by respondents)
|
2014 |
2015 |
|||||||||||
|
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
II |
|
| Vladimir Putin |
29 |
32 |
46 |
49 |
50 |
52 |
57 |
49 |
56 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
| Gennady Zyuganov |
5 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
| Sergei Shoigu |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
| Alexei Navalny |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
| Dmitry Medvedev |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
| Sergei Mironov |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
| Other |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
| I don’t know for whom I would vote |
27 |
25 |
18 |
21 |
16 |
18 |
14 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
11 |
| I don’t know whether I would vote |
13 |
14 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
| I wouldn’t vote |
17 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH OF THE CURRENT POLITICIANS WOULD YOU VOTE? (open answer – politicians were named by respondents; in % of respondents who would vote and know who they would vote for)
|
2014 |
2015 |
|||||||||||
|
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
II |
|
| Vladimir Putin |
66 |
67 |
77 |
81 |
81 |
82 |
87 |
83 |
88 |
84 |
88 |
86 |
| Gennady Zyuganov |
12 |
13 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
7 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
| Sergei Shoigu |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
2 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
| Alexei Navalny |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
| Dmitry Medvedev |
2 |
2 |
1 |
<1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
| Sergei Mironov |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
2 |
<1 |
2 |
<1 |
<1 |
| Other |
6 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH OF THE CURRENT POLITICIANS WOULD YOU VOTE? (closed question – respondents selected politicians from the following list)
|
Aug. 14 |
Sept. 14 |
Oct. 14 |
Nov. 14 |
Dec. 14 |
Feb. 15 |
|
| Vladimir Putin |
58 |
56 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
59 |
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
| Gennady Zyuganov |
7 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
| Sergei Mironov |
1 |
2 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
2 |
| Alexei Navalny |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
2 |
| Mikhail Prokhorov |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| Someone else |
1 |
2 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
|
I don’t know for whom I would vote |
8 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
12 |
| I wouldn’t vote |
10 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
|
I don’t know whether I would vote |
8 |
7 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH OF THE CURRENT POLITICIANS WOULD YOU VOTE? (closed question – respondents selected politicians from the following list; in % of respondents who would vote and know for whom they would vote)
|
|
Aug. 14 |
Sept. 14 |
Oct. 14 |
Nov. 14 |
Dec. 14 |
Feb. 15 |
| Vladimir Putin |
79 |
75 |
81 |
82 |
80 |
80 |
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
7 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
| Gennady Zyuganov |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
| Sergei Mironov |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| Alexei Navalny |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
| Mikhail Prokhorov |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| Someone else |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Possible results of Duma elections
Distribution of answers depending on the presence/absence of the “against all” column
|
Feb. 15 |
In % of all respondents |
In % of respondents who are decided on their vote |
||
|
Including the “against all” option |
Excluding the “against all” option |
Including the “against all” option |
Excluding the “against all” option |
|
| United Russia (D. Medvedev) |
45 |
46 |
64 |
68 |
| Communist Party (G. Zyuganov) |
12 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (V. Zhirinovsky) |
6 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
| Progress Party (A. Navalny) |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| Civic Platform (R. Shaykhutdinov) |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| A Just Russia (S. Mironov) |
1 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Apple (S. Mitrokhin) |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
| Other |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
| Against all |
4 |
– |
5 |
– |
| I wouldn’t take part in the elections |
16 |
17 |
– |
– |
| It is difficult to say |
14 |
16 |
– |
– |
Data in Action
IF THE DUMA ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE? (closed question; in % of respondents)
|
2014 |
2015 |
||||||||||||
|
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
II |
|
|
United Russia (D. Medvedev) |
28 |
29 |
36 |
39 |
40 |
36 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
43 |
39 |
44 |
45 |
|
Communist Party (G. Zyuganov) |
11 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
7 |
12 |
|
Liberal Democratic Party оf Russia (V. Zhirinovsky) |
5 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Progress Party (A. Navalny) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
2 |
|
Civic Platform (R. Shaykhutdinov) |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
|
A Just Russia (S. Mironov) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Apple (S. Mitrokhin) |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
| Other |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| Against all |
8 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
I wouldn’t take part in the elections |
23 |
22 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
| It is difficult to say |
19 |
22 |
23 |
19 |
26 |
22 |
18 |
18 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
IF THE DUMA ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE? (closed question; in % of respondents who would vote and know for whom they would vote)
|
2014 |
2015 |
||||||||||||
|
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
II |
|
|
United Russia (D. Medvedev) |
48 |
51 |
56 |
60 |
66 |
59 |
64 |
63 |
68 |
64 |
61 |
66 |
64 |
|
Communist Party (G. Zyuganov) |
19 |
16 |
17 |
13 |
9 |
19 |
12 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
10 |
17 |
|
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (V. Zhirinovsky) |
9 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
|
Progress Party (A. Navalny) |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
2 |
|
Civic Platform (R. Shaykhutdinov) |
3 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
<1 |
1 |
2 |
<1 |
1 |
<1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
|
A Just Russia (S. Mironov) |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
Apple (S. Mitrokhin) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
2 |
<1 |
<1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
<1 |
| Other |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
<1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
| Against all |
14 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
WOULD YOU PREFER THAT, AFTER THREE YEARS, VLADIMIR PUTIN BE ELECTED AS PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA FOR ANOTHER TERM, OR THAT HE BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER PERSON AFTER THREE YEARS?
|
Feb. 15 |
|
| I would prefer that Putin be reelected as President of Russia in three years |
57 |
| I would prefer that Putin be replaced by another person as President of Russia in three years |
25 |
| It is difficult to say |
19 |
Until February 2015, the question was asked in the following format: “Would you prefer that, after six years Vladimir Putin be elected as President of Russia for another term, or that he be replaced by Dmitry Medvedev or another person after six years?”
WOULD YOU PREFER THAT, AFTER SIX YEARS, VLADIMIR PUTIN BE ELECTED AS PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA FOR ANOTHER TERM, OR THAT HE BE REPLACED BY DMITRY MEDVEDEV OR ANOTHER PERSON AFTER SIX YEARS?
|
Mar. 12 |
Aug. 12 |
Dec. 12 |
Mar. 13 |
Dec. 13 |
|
| I would prefer that Putin be reelected as President of Russia in six years |
17 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
| I would prefer that Putin be replaced by Medvedev as President of Russia in six years |
6 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
| I would prefer that Putin be replaced by another person as President of Russia in six years |
43 |
49 |
44 |
47 |
47 |
| It is difficult to say |
34 |
22 |
28 |
23 |
26 |
DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A REPLACMENT FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN AS PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA?
|
|
Dec. 12 |
Dec. 13 |
| It is possible to find is a politician who could replace Putin now |
10 |
12 |
| If needed, we could find a person who could replace Putin |
47 |
40 |
| There is not currently anyone in Russia who could replace Putin |
27 |
31 |
| It is difficult to say |
15 |
17 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN POWER IN THE COUNTRY IS HELD IN THE HANDS OF THE SAME PEOPLE FOR MANY YEARS?
|
|
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 11 |
Dec. 13 |
Feb. 15 |
| It ensures order and stability in the country |
34 |
25 |
20 |
41 |
| The people who are in power are not important so long as they follow the law |
19 |
14 |
15 |
19 |
| It leads to increased despotism, corruption, and abuse |
20 |
34 |
36 |
18 |
| It leads to stagnation and falling behind other countries |
15 |
20 |
20 |
12 |
| It is difficult to say |
12 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
IN YOUR OPINION, WHICH WOULD BE BETTER FOR RUSSIA?
|
Dec. 06 |
Dec. 11 |
Jan. 15 |
|
|
Division of power among the President of Russia, the State Duma, and the judicial system |
18 |
22 |
29 |
|
Actions of the government, the State Duma, and the judicial system coordinated by the President of Russia |
62 |
57 |
50 |
| It is difficult to say |
20 |
22 |
21 |
* The poll was conducted from 23-26 January 2015
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).